Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Phil Kessel signs extension; is Dion Phaneuf next?



Now that Phil Kessel has signed an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs, will Dion Phaneuf be far behind?

That seems to be the next order of business for GM Dave Nonis.

“They’ve (his agent and GM Dave Nonis) begun negotiating,” said Phaneuf hours after Phil Kessel signed his extension. “It’s the business side of the game. Like I said I have no problem doing it (negotiating) during the year but I don’t want it to become a distraction and I’m not going to say much more than that.”

So while preliminary talks have started, Nonis and the Leafs need to determine what kind of money is Phaneuf worth?

Phaneuf is 28 years old and is in the last year of a deal that sees him paid $5.5M, and is a $6.5M cap hit.

He regularly plays 26 to 30 minutes a game, and as captain of the Leafs, he does plenty of things in the community representing the team.

He has also been an easy target for criticism.

But do the Leafs need him going forward? Should they build their team around him and Kessel?

Right now, only seven defencemen in the NHL have a higher cap hit than Phaneuf’s: 
Nashville’s Shea Weber $7.8M, Minnesota’s Ryan Suter $7.5M, Brian Campbell of Florida, $7.1M,  L.A.’s Drew Doughty $7M,  Boston’s Zdeno Chara $6.9M,  Jay Bouwmeester of St. Louis $6.68M, and San Jose’s Dan Boyle $6.66M.

Phaneuf is in the prime of his career and his relatively young compared to the other defenceman who have a higher cap hit than he does.

Weber is 28 years old, Suter is 28, Campbell is 34, Doughty is 23, Chara is 36, Bouwmeester is 30 and Boyle is the oldest at 37.

By the way, Alex Pietrangelo of the St. Louis Blues has a $6.5M cap hit and is 23 years of age.
Phaneuf was 11th in average ice-time last season at 25:10 a game.   
His 28 points last year had him tied with Shea Weber for 4th most among blueliners. Only Doughty and Pietrangelo had more shifts per game than Phaneuf last year.
Phaneuf has the 8th most goals among NHL defenceman since the start of the 2009-2010 season. He’s had six seasons of 9 or more goals and 30 or more points.

This is going to be a tricky one for Nonis, but based on what Phil Kessel got - $8M a year for 8 years, Phaneuf will likely be asking for a 6 to 8 year deal seeking 7 to 7.5M a year.

Is that fair? Is that a deal the Leafs can live with?

It’s a question Nonis and his team must decide but I would think at the end of the day that’s the kind of deal Phaneuf will be signing – either with the Leafs or with another team.

Meantime, regarding Kessel’s deal here is why I think it is fair for both sides:

* Kessel is just 26 years old and would have been the youngest unrestricted free agent on the market.

* Over the last two seasons, only Steven Stamkos, Evgeni Malkin and Claude Giroux have more points than Kessel.

* Over the last three seasons only three players have scored more goals than Kessel: Stamkos, Corey Perry and Alex Ovechkin.

Finally the cap hits next year for the players names above suggest the price was fair :

25 year-old Claude Giroux- $8.275M

23 year-old Steven Stamkos - $7.5M

27 year-old Evgeni Malkin -  $8.7M

28 year-old Corey Perry - $8.625M

28 year-old Alexander Ovechkin- $9.53M

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